![]() Briefly, the accelerator links the investment/capital stock data to the change in GDP, the Q model implies the investment ratio is linked to the ratio of market valuation to book value, adjusted for tax provisions, and the financial frictions model in the GS formulation augments the accelerator with a proxy measure for the effect of frictions (namely loan officer report on lending conditions). Two of these models (as well others) are described in this post. Source: David Mericle, “The Drivers of Capital Spending,” Goldman Sachs (December 5, 2012). GS provides this graph (note dependent variable is I/K, not log(I/K)): … Our analysis suggests that an improved version of the standard accelerator model that accounts for the availability of credit goes a long way toward explaining recent investment patterns. Second, Tobin’s Q model … is considerably noisier and overpredicts investment during the recovery from the Great Recession much more severely than the other models.įinally, combining the accelerator model with a measure of credit availability captures investment dynamics reasonably well. … The model also substantially overpredicts investment during the last couple of years because it implies that the lagged effect of the sharpest downturn phase of the recession should have passed by now. Our econometric analysis leads us to draw the following conclusions about each class of model:įirst, the accelerator model generally fits well. Goldman Sachs (David Mericle, “The Drivers of Capital Spending, December 5, 2012, not online) notes: Source: BEA, 2012Q3 second release, BEA Table 1.2 (Aug. Net capital stock is annual yearend, interpolated using cubic last match 2012Q1-Q3 extrapolated using regression of first difference of capital stock on investment, 2000-2011. Is there something to this idea? Figure 1 depicts the gross investment to net capital stock.įigure 1: Nonresidential fixed investment, billions of Ch.05$ SAAR (blue line, left scale), and log ratio of fixed investment to net capital stock in Ch.05 (red line, right scale). Some would want to resort to stories of uncertainty. When you claim the gift, the sender will get a message/notification that their gift has been claimed.One of the puzzles of the post-crisis period is why investment has been so slow. Find the barn find location on the map and visit it because that’s where your gift has been sent to.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |